YOU DOYOUWeek 3
Moves
Christian McAutoPickaddTrey Smack, KSuper Lamario WorldaddEmanuel Wilson, RBThe Buckeye BoysaddMatthew Stafford, QBComebackChrisdropChase McLaughlin, KMud DogsaddAdonai Mitchell, WRChristian McAutoPickwaiverOronde Gadsden, TEChristian McAutoPickwaiverJonah Coleman, RBChristian McAutoPickwaiverTre Tucker, WRMud DogswaiverTyler Bass, KComebackChriswaiverDenzel Boston, WRComebackChriswaiverKansas City defenseAll TDs, no SackswaiverTyler Shough, QBComebackChrisaddRomeo Doubs, WRComebackChrisaddKayshon Boutte, WRKittle & bitsaddTampa Bay defenseThe Buckeye BoysaddDalton Schultz, TEThe Buckeye BoyswaiverTerry McLaurin, WRComebackChrisaddKaelon Black, RBAll TDs, no SacksaddAntonio Williams, WRChristian McAutoPickaddMatthew Golden, WR34 moves in three weeks, 0 trades

Season 2026, after week 2

Playoff picture

6 of 10 make it; the top two get a first-round bye.

The odds

Odds from 10,000 simulated finishes of the remaining schedule, after week 2. Clinch and elimination are on wins alone until the last week is final; then the league's points-for tiebreak decides.

1

Diddy Bandits

98.9%

2-0 · 378.4 points · on pace for 10.1 wins

MAGIC 12+6.1
2

ComebackChris

87.7%

2-0 · 287.55 points · on pace for 8.3 wins

MAGIC 12+14.1
3

Christian McAutoPick

57.0%

2-0 · 225 points · on pace for 6.9 wins

MAGIC 12+7.2
4

The Buckeye Boys

94.2%

1-1 · 362.95 points · on pace for 8.6 wins

MAGIC 13+16.9
5

All TDs, no Sacks

84.4%

1-1 · 309.1 points · on pace for 7.8 wins

MAGIC 13+18.4
6

Super Lamario World

78.0%

1-1 · 294.65 points · on pace for 7.4 wins

MAGIC 13-3.8

Playoff cut line

7

Hender's Game

45.0%

1-1 · 234.05 points · on pace for 6.3 wins

MAGIC 13-29.8
8

Mud Dogs

23.9%

0-2 · 230.8 points · on pace for 5.2 wins

MAGIC 14-0.1
9

Fightin Honkies

19.9%

0-2 · 226.6 points · on pace for 5.0 wins

MAGIC 14-17.7
10

Kittle & bits

11.2%

0-2 · 197.1 points · on pace for 4.5 wins

MAGIC 14-11.2

Teams are in seeding order, so the cut line sits where the bracket would be drawn today. Each row carries the odds now, the change since last week in points, and the week-by-week trend on the right. The magic number is the wins by that team and losses by the first team outside the line that together add up to a spot. Clinched and out are on wins alone until the last week is final; then the league's points-for tiebreak decides.

Movers this week

Biggest changes in playoff odds since last week, in points.

Where the numbers come from

Odds are how often a team made the playoffs in 10,000 simulated finishes of the remaining schedule. They are not a prediction of any single game.

Each simulation plays every game left on the calendar. A team's scoring level comes from what it has actually put up this season, pulled part of the way toward the league average so one big week does not decide the season, and every score is given the same week-to-week bounce the league has shown in the past. Seeds are then sorted the way the league sorts them: wins first, then points scored.

Clinching and elimination are worked out separately, and only on wins, so a team is never declared in or out on a tiebreaker that has not been played.